In the world of Fantasy Premier League (FPL), making smart decisions about player selections can be the difference between topping your mini-league or languishing near the bottom. Two advanced metrics that can give you an edge are Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA). These stats provide deeper insights into a player’s performance and potential, beyond traditional stats like goals and assists. Here’s how you can use xG and xA to make more informed decisions when picking players for your fantasy football team.
What are Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA)?
Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of a player’s scoring chances. It assigns a value (from 0 to 1) to every shot, based on factors such as distance from the goal, angle, type of shot, and whether it was a big chance or not. For example, a penalty kick typically has an xG of 0.76, meaning there’s a 76% chance of scoring. This metric helps to quantify the likelihood that a player will score based on the quality of their chances rather than just the number of goals they’ve scored.
Expected Assists (xA) evaluates the quality of chances that a player creates for others. It assigns a value to every pass that leads to a shot, taking into account factors like the pass type, the difficulty of the pass, and the position of the receiver. This metric goes beyond traditional assists by providing a measure of how likely a pass would result in a goal, regardless of whether the receiver finishes the chance.
Why Use xG and xA in FPL?
Identify Undervalued Players: Players with high xG but few goals might be unlucky or facing tough goalkeepers, suggesting they could soon convert their chances into goals. Similarly, players with high xA but few assists might be playing with teammates who are poor finishers. Investing in these players before they start scoring or assisting regularly can give you a differential advantage.
Avoid Overperformers: On the flip side, players with a low xG but a high number of goals may not sustain their form, as they rely on extraordinary finishing or luck. Likewise, players with a high number of assists but low xA might regress if their teammates start missing chances. These players are often overperforming and could be overvalued in FPL.
Predict Future Performance: xG and xA are predictive metrics that can help you anticipate future performances. A player consistently generating high xG and xA is likely to keep delivering points. Tracking these metrics over a few gameweeks allows you to spot form trends and adjust your squad accordingly.
How to Use xG and xA to Pick Players
Strikers: Look for strikers with a high xG, as they are getting into good positions frequently. Even if their actual goal tally is low, a high xG suggests they are on the verge of scoring. Also, consider players who take a high number of shots, especially inside the box, as these contribute to a higher xG.
Midfielders: Midfielders with a high xA are creating quality chances consistently. If they also have a decent xG, they can contribute goals and assists, making them valuable FPL assets. Pay attention to set-piece takers, as they often have higher xA due to crosses from free kicks and corners.
Differential Picks: Use xG and xA to spot potential differentials—players owned by fewer managers but who have high potential for returns. For example, a midfielder with a high xA but low actual assists might be overlooked by others, providing you with a unique pick.
Monitor Team Trends: Sometimes, it’s not just about individual players. Teams with high overall xG are generally creating a lot of good chances, so investing in their attacking players can be wise. Similarly, avoid attackers from teams with consistently low xG, as they are not generating enough opportunities to score.
Data-driven decisions
By integrating xG and xA into your FPL strategy, you can go beyond the surface-level stats and make more data-driven decisions. These metrics help identify potential bargains, warn against unsustainable performances, and predict future returns. So, when making your next transfer or deciding who to captain, consider the underlying numbers—your fantasy football team might just thank you for it! You can check out the xG and xA for FPL players on the official FPL website
Need more help? Feel free to browse the other FPLToolbox guides here
