Introduction
After the blank in 29, gameweek 30 returned with a full set of fixtures and didn’t disappoint! There were goals aplenty, comeback wins and some tightly fought affairs. Before the gameweek I selected six players as potential transfers based on their data, fixtures and form. Here I review my transfer shortlist – let’s see how we got on.
Malo Gusto
With just 1 point, Gusto disappointed the 10.5% of managers who have him in their squad. As expected, Chelsea struggled to keep the opposition out, with expected goals conceded for their match against lowly Burnley of 1.23. They underperformed and actually conceded 2 goals. I would have expected a better defensive performance given the quality of Chelsea’s opposition but Gusto was selected for his attacking potential and I’d argue his underlying numbers support the possibility that this game could have been very different. For a defender, his expected goal involvement of 0.66 (split between 0.36 and 0.30 for goals and assists, respectively) is very high and ultimately unlucky that he ended with just 1 point. Put it this way, if he always put these stats up every week, you would expect a return 2 out of every 3 games which is pretty phenomenal for a £4.2m defender. If you’ve brought him in, don’t panic – his fixtures are good, his underlying data is good and there are double gameweeks ahead. The main concern is he is yellow flagged with a hamstring concern but hopefully he recovers quickly.
Antonee Robinson
Another defender with just 1 point. A lot of people jumped on this bandwagon after his haul in gameweek 29 and, similar to Gusto, it’s still not a terrible decision – sometimes a transfer just doesn’t work out immediately. His underlying numbers for the game of 0.22 expected assists is solid but with 3 goals scored by Fulham and not a single return from him, owners will be disappointed. I do think there are better bargain defenders available but if you’ve got him, there’s no need to waste a transfer moving him on – most of us have higher priorities – his fixtures remain decent and he’s not tying up too much cash.
Mohamed Salah
When Brighton went one up early on, those who took the plunge on Salah would have been worried but they shouldn’t have doubted. The only surprise is that he didn’t score more because he put up an XG of 1.49 for the game. There’s an argument for him getting credited with the assist for the equaliser but I won’t get too into that. He’s capable of more and will certainly deliver a haul or two before the season is over, if you didn’t bring him in for gameweek 30 then the only question is when will you?!
Anthony Gordon
An interesting one this. An expected goal involvement of 0.49 of which 0.35 was expected assists really doesn’t tell the whole story. In typical FPL fashion he’s been credited with 3 assists, 2 being for winning penalties. Gordon has been one of the bargain attackers of the season but his ill-discipline has struck again, getting sent off in stoppage time will frustrate Gordon owners and put off any new buyers while he serves a suspension for gameweek 31. He’s still good value so I wouldn’t sell and if you don’t already have him, it should only put you off for one week.
Rodrigo Muniz
Muniz strikes again. He’s now scored his 8th goal in his last 8 premier league matches. A great return for just £4.6m. The fixtures look decent with a visit to Nottingham Forest up next. It’s really only a question of whether he can maintain this – is he underpriced or will the pricier more established goalscorers outdo him from here on in? If you’ve got Muniz or thinking of adding him, remember it’s not only about what he scores but what the release of funds from more expensive striker options can do for your team as a whole.
Nicolas Jackson
There are players in FPL who seem to hit form but as soon as you bring them into your team, the points dry up. It might be just me but it feels like Jackson is one of those. If I told you the only recognised striker for the home team in a 2-2 draw would put up XG of 0.67, you’d rightly expect an attacking return. Not this time though, Chelsea’s inconsistency is reflected in Jackson’s inconsistency. I still think he could be a good pick and importantly the fixture list is kind to Chelsea with 2 double gameweeks to go however the only consistent attacker in the team has been Cole Palmer this season. His two goal return explains why nearly 40% of players have him in their team while Jackson offers the differential with just 5.1% of managers backing him. If you’ve got him, hold tight but if you don’t then think carefully if you’re the type of manager who can put up with the inconsistency he delivers.
Conclusion
3 players returned, 3 players blanked but as always in FPL it doesn’t tell the whole story. A mini-league isn’t won or lost in one gameweek and there’s plenty to be positive about with all 6 picks. I’ll be updating the transfer watchlist for gameweek 31 – look out for who is added and removed.
