Gameweek 35 has one match still to go with Chelsea hosting Spurs in both their second games of the week but it’s been an interesting one. A lot of managers targeted, logically, the double gameweek players for both this week and for 37. This has so far had mixed results. The remaining game will have a big impact on the success of this strategy for GW35.
I’m going to throw in a little prediction ahead of that game – I’m expecting a game where both teams score and (hopefully, for the not so neutral FPL manager) there are plenty of goals. They have both been defensively frail recently. Spurs showed again against Arsenal that they are weak against counter attacks and set plays (something Chelsea have been pretty decent at exploiting – look at their counter attacking performances against Man City this year). Chelsea have been generally very inconsistent and struggled to keep teams out and I expect more of the same against Spurs. With yet another injury in Enzo I’m slightly concerned Chelsea will struggle on the ball to play through midfield and feed the likes of Palmer and Jackson. It’s going to be an interesting contest.
Image Source: BBC
The title race rolls into another week but with Liverpool’s slip up against West Ham, it’s realistically only Arsenal and Man City still in the hunt. One of Nottingham Forest, Luton and Burnley are still able to escape relegation and European qualification is still up for grabs for a lot of teams so there’s a lot for teams to play for still. Some potentially lucrative fixtures for FPL managers include Arsenal hosting Bournemouth, Chelsea taking on West Ham, Newcastle visiting Burnley and Man City welcoming Wolves.
The watchlist:
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Trent also remains on my list. He’s very pricey which is why he’s only selected by 10% of managers. He stays on this list because of what he’s capable of – I know Liverpool have effectively played their way out of the title race and haven’t been at their best but they host Spurs next and we’ve seen how Newcastle and Arsenal have managed to put plenty of goals past them. Both employed counter attacking tactics against Spurs which suits Klopp and Liverpool as well. Trent is on set pieces and likely to take up midfield positions to ping balls behind Spurs’ high line.
Phil Foden
Foden didn’t feature in Man City’s last game against Nottingham Forest but it was confirmed to be due to illness, not injury. That bodes well for a return to the first team for a player who has been in great form this year. Man City have Wolves at home this week and then a double gameweek in 37 so it makes sense to have at least one if not more City assets. However, as always, rotation is a risk especially with De Bruyne also being available and it’s anyone’s guess who’ll be the top scorer from the City midfielders. Foden’s minutes this season and how he’s repaid his manager’s faith with top performances and a lot of goals makes me favour him. His underlying stats are great and has returned well with a high points per match of 6.4. He’s owned by a whopping 38% of managersl so KDB would offer more as a differential if you can afford him.
Cole Palmer
No return against Aston Villa for Palmer but Spurs still to play in the current double gameweek means there’s potential still for some good points. Gameweek 36 see’s a London derby with West Ham visiting and then the bonus of another double game in 37 and just generally favourable fixtures makes Palmer a no-brainer. Outside of this, there’s no other standout Chelsea candidates except for Madueke who looked very dangerous against Villa. However, he’s generally been a player who’s failed to put up consistent underlying numbers for expected assists or goals so there’s a good chance he won’t maintain this sort of return. Palmer is the safe bet, but Madueke is a good differential for those in need.
Kai Havertz
Much maligned when he joined Arsenal and he’s taken his fair share of criticism but with 3 goals and an assist in his last 2 games (scoring 27 FPL points) he’s been a fantastic differential for anyone who’s had him. Players who play out of position like Havertz, who is classed as a midfielder but is effectively being played up front always, offer potential for great returns. Arsenal’s fixtures look favourable and I’d be quite surprised if they don’t win them all…it still may not be enough to win the league though. It’s just a question of who will bag the FPL points – Saka, Havertz or someone else? With Saka heavily owned and much more expensive, Havertz looks like a great option for the remaining games.
Bruno Fernandes
Fernandes failed to deliver a return against Burnley but his expected assists of 1.12 and 2 bonus points (a reflection of the quality of his play that day) suggests he was unfortunate. His form has been great lately and while on paper, the fixture list looks difficult, especially for this Man United side (Crystal Palace away, Arsenal then Newcastle at home then Brighton away) from an FPL perspective there’s points for a player like Bruno in these games. You don’t need Man United to win, or even play well, for Fernandes to score some good points. Fairly low owned at 18% which makes him a nice differential if you can fit him in.
Alexander Isak
Another 2 goals this week has rewarded Isak owners again but it’s still not too late. With Burnley away this week and the relegation strugglers needing to get something from the game, we could witness an open match which will play into Newcaslte’s hands. Isak has been lethal but the worry is that Wilson’s return could limit his gametime. Saying that, Isak stayed on the pitch even has Wilson came on against Sheffield United which shows Eddie Howe is comfortable playing both together.
Conclusion
It’s crunch time for many teams and that applies no less for FPL managers. The difficulty right now is looking beyond the highly owned players, finding value elsewhere in the differentials especially if you’re chasing. The highly owned players are that for a reason; their rate of return, but with just 3 weeks left the potential for differentials to outscore some of the big names makes them tempting.
Can Havertz outscore Saka? Can Foden keep his place or will De Bruyne steal his thunder in Man City’s bid for a record 4th consecutive title? Can Bruno Fernandes continue to defy all odds and return top level amounts of goals and assists in a team that refuses to win? Can Isak continue his form and also keep his starting place for Newcastle despite Wilson’s return to fitness?
Image Source: Newcastle World
There’s a lot of marginal calls between these FPL picks but they can make a big difference to how your season ends. My top pick is Isak but I do fear for his minutes. If you’re looking for a differential then Bruno Fernandes edges Havertz for me just because of the extra game in 37.
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