Son no show and Saka surprise. Ten Hag sacked but does it chance anything for Man United assets? Haaland back on the scoresheet but plenty of missed chances. Wood at the double, keeping his great scoring run going. Plenty to get stuck into this week!
Here are my early thoughts ahead of gameweek 10 and I attempt to make sense of the week gone to see what we’ve learnt!
As always, if you have any FPL questions you want us to address, message @FPLwithStu on X.
Does the Ten Hag sack matter for FPL?
There’s plenty to be said about Man United’s sacking of Ten Hag, and there will be, for days and weeks to come. My focus here is what impact this has on FPL managers. All I will say is that it’s been a long time coming and the one thing you can’t accuse Man United of is not giving the manager time.
Image source: standard
Here are Man United’s upcoming fixtures:
Chelsea at home was a tough fixture and I don’t see huge amount of change in how United will approach the game – all the coaching and management team will remain the same, it’s just Ten Hag who’s gone in the short term. There’s an argument that some of the players might feel a new lease of life, as so often happens when a manager changes, but to start thinking the likes of Rashford or Fernandes are good options is nothing more than a punt.
Saying that, the next 3 fixtures are kind so we can assess after the Chelsea game. If they play well and some players looks more at the races then a 3 week punt could be worth it but I expect most managers will have more important priorities.
It’s also worth noting that early reports suggest Man United are moving fast for a replacement with Rúben Amorim of Sporting and Xavi, formerly of Barcelona, the early favourites. Even if interim manager, Ruud Van Nistelrooy gets a tune out the team against Chelsea, the new manager could rip up the play book anyway and team selection becomes more of a lottery.
Have you missed the boat on Chris Wood?
7 in 9 games makes Chris Wood the second highest scoring forward in FPL so far. At £6.4m his points per price is one of the best so far but can he keep it up and is he definitely the best option at this price point?
Firstly, let’s look at his upcoming fixtures:
We’ve taken the long view because with most players at his price point, you don’t really want to be chopping and changing too often. There’s bigger fish to fry, for example targeting premium players with the best fixtures.
The next 2 fixtures are good and 3 of the next 4 are 2. But it really depends how you cut it, Arsenal and Man City away in the next 5…in fact that run from gameweek 12 to 18 is not too kind.
Wood plays in a good side that’s putting up excellent attacking numbers (an average XG of about 3 goals a game) but he is personally outscoring his XG. I’m doubtful the rate of return will continue, especially with the fixtures, but he’s a good option and worth buying.
Saying that, I think there are others at his price point worth considering.
Is Cunha the new Wood?
Wolves have had a tough start to the season but I think their league position is a harsh reflection on them and is partly caused by the fixtures. They’ve now turned and it’s time to take a serious look at them.
My personal favourite from Wolves is Cunha. Given the fixtures I think he has the best chance of anyone (at that price point) of outscoring Wood over the next 5-10 games.
I’d also consider Rayan Aït-Nouri in defence at £4.6m. He scored at the weekend and puts up really strong attacking numbers. Wolves haven’t been great defensively but any cleansheet would simply be a bonus. Be warned though, he’s on 4 yellow cards and another will results in a 1 match suspension.
Image source: goal.com
Is there anybody else?
Of the other cheap forwards, Raul Jimenez deserves a mention. I hailed his return last week, so surprise surprise he blanked. However, he’s still scored 4 in his last 7 and has good fixtures over the long term, albeit with some tricky ones in there (it is the Premier League after all).
He could be a great option, especially if you’re able to rotate him out in the tough games against Arsenal and Liverpool.
Add in that he’s probably on penalties after Andreas Pereira’s miss this week but do be aware his place could come under threat from Muniz.
I also like Wissa of Brentford. Even if you have Mbeumo already, the double up looks good. Wissa looked very lively and could have got even more than his 1 goal and assist against Ipswich.
Fixtures are good but do turn harder further down the line:
For what it’s worth, Dominic Calvert-Lewin was in this discussion some weeks ago due to fixtures but he’s not scored in 5 so a definite avoid. Even with good fixtures on paper, I can’t see that he beats any of the options above.
The Saka and Son debacle
Did anyone else get caught out by Son and Saka’s fitness issues. I’ve been stung pretty hard by holding Saka when he didn’t play, then making my move for Son last week who then didn’t play. I’m not even going to count the points lost.
Son remains a doubt for the next game, a tough one at home to Villa. For what it’s worth, I expect he’ll play but it’s too early to know. The press conferences will hopefully reveal more later this week. If you’ve got him, like me, then I’d probably hold because if he plays, great, if not then he’ll almost certainly play the following week against Ipswich at home and that’s a great one to have him for.
Saka came back without any real build up. Arteta is known to play these sort of games which is why I don’t trust his press conferences. Generally if he says a player isn’t fit then there’s a good chance he’ll play, and vice versa. A tricky fixture against Liverpool but Saka looked lively, no rustiness, and scored a really good goal.
Newcastle away is always tough and followed by a visit to Chelsea doesn’t inspire me to bring him back in a rush. Saying that, he’s fairly fixture proof as shown by his consistency this season.
It’s a toss up between Son and Saka, if you have either then I wouldn’t switch this week and neither are an immediate must buy either.
While on the topic of Arsenal, Gabriel has picked up an injury. For now it’s just a yellow flag for a “knock” which basically means it’s anyone’s guess. I wouldn’t sell just yet – wait and see. Saying that, Arteta isn’t going to give you much to go on!
Palmer or Son?
Chelsea’s next 3 fixtures are as follows: Newcastle (H), Man Utd (A), Arsenal (H).
Spurs are Crystal Palace (A), Aston Villa (H), Ipswich (H).
On paper, I’d favour Son to outscore Palmer over these 3 games. After that, I think the fixtures flip and become a little easier for Chelsea compared to Spurs. There’s not a lot in it but in conclusion, Palmer is the long term pick and Son the short term one.
Haaland or Salah – the debate is back on
Haaland scored but just 1 at home to Southampton. There’s a few ways to look at it – he’s back scoring but also that he should have had a hat full. On paper, yes but that’s not how football of FPL works.
Image source: goal.com
I’m positive, as an owner, that he had a lot of chances as well as the 1 he scored. The problem in the weeks before have been a lack of high quality chances coming his way.
Is it time to switch him out and use that £15m+ elsewhere? The obvious choice is Salah, who has been very consistent and is currently the top FPL scorer this season.
Salah has had just 2 blanks all season compared to Haaland’s 3. The difference is that Haaland’s have come all in a row.
Let’s look forward…how do the fixtures compare:
In the next 3 I think Liverpool’s look nicer, they’re at home more and the away game is against bottom of the table Saints. Add in that gameweek 13 fixture where they play against each other, Liverpool have home advantage.
If I was picking my team from scratch (or wildcarding) then I’d be picking Salah. However, it all depends what sort of manager you are. If you’re going to be FOMO for example if it hurts you too much when Haaland scores when you don’t have him, then don’t do it to yourself.
On the other hand, as a Haaland owner, I won’t be removing him to get Salah in (partly because I’d have to take a hit this week) because Haaland has just come out of a scoring drought and his goals per game is so high that the law of averages tells me that there are goals on the way. Call it superstitious if you want but in my view it’s simple maths.
Oh, and that Spurs game away may look tough but City could have a field day there.
Erm, are you forgetting Palmer?
In all of this Salah v Haaland chat (plus Son and Saka) are we forgetting Palmer? Fear not, he’s in my thinking big time. As you know, you simply can’t have all of these guys in your team. FPL have priced these guys brilliantly which is causing both headaches but also a lot a variation in scoring week to week. I don’t know about you buy my mini leagues are all over the place each week – it’s fun!
Palmer is still the second top FPL points scorer so far this year but his story is one of fits and starts. I’ve said it before, this is what to expect from him. If you want safe, then go for one of the other premiums (or even Mbeumo who is now a must have by the way) but Palmer is more likely to blank then haul rather than give you points every week.
As I’ve said, we don’t know what we’ll get from United this week. It could be a pragmatic, organised display to steady the ship or we could see some players unleashed given the pressure is off. How this affects Chelsea and Palmer it’s hard to know. Arsenal away afterwards is another toughy so I don’t think bringing him in now is the time.
From gameweek 12 onwards, that fixture run looks pretty tasty! I wouldn’t want to be without him. It’s just a matter of picking who is not in your team instead.
We’ll be back with some more ahead gameweek 10, including our team reveal. If you have any comments or questions you want us to answer message us @FPLwithStu on X.
