Chris Wood has emerged as a popular forward option for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers this season. With Nottingham Forest enjoying a favorable fixture run over the next few gameweeks, Wood has been quietly delivering points, prompting FPL managers to wonder: is Wood the real deal or a trap?
In this article, I break down the key arguments around Wood’s value, examining his stats, the alternatives, and what to expect in the upcoming weeks.
Chris Wood’s Stats: A Mirage?
At first glance, Wood’s season appears promising. He’s bagged a few goals, some of which have been crucial for his FPL managers. However, a deeper dive into his stats might cause concern. In four of the seven games he’s played this season, he’s only managed a single shot. Interestingly, three of those four shots resulted in goals, suggesting an extremely high conversion rate.
To further illustrate this point, Wood even went through a match without attempting a shot at all. One of the few shots he did take was from the penalty spot, which also found the back of the net.
Image source: TBRFootball
Is This Form Sustainable?
This leads to the question: can Wood keep up this kind of output with so few attempts? It’s a legitimate concern for those who follow underlying statistics in FPL. While he is converting chances at an impressive rate, his lack of regular involvement in shots per game could be a red flag. Relying on moments of clinical finishing or penalties could eventually catch up with him, especially if Nottingham Forest’s fixtures tighten up.
However, some FPL managers remain optimistic. A key argument is that Forest’s favourable upcoming fixtures could see more attacking opportunities, potentially increasing Wood’s shots per game. The team has faced some tough defensive opposition early in the season, and as they transition to easier matchups, Wood might get more chances to score.
Wood vs Alternatives: Is He Still the Best Value?
Many FPL managers who own Wood since the start are happy with his returns and don’t see an immediate reason to transfer him out. The main competition in his price bracket includes the likes of Raul Jimenez, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DCL), and Danny Welbeck, but none of these players have shown Wood’s consistency so far.
Matheus Cunha from Wolves is another tempting option, especially as he appears to be more active in front of goal. But there is a significant price difference between Cunha and Wood, which is worth considering. Wood’s role as the team’s penalty taker and his ability to convert high xG chances have made him a valuable asset for managers on a budget.
High xG, Low Shots: Does It Matter?
A lot of FPL managers focus on shots per game, but the more telling stat is xG (expected goals). Wood’s xG/90 (expected goals per 90 minutes) has remained solid, even dating back to last season. This suggests that while Wood may not take many shots, the chances he does get are of high quality. Some argue that having a forward who capitalizes on high xG opportunities (such as tap-ins or penalties) is more beneficial than one who takes multiple low xG shots from distance.
Ultimately, Wood is seen by some as “Mr. Consistent.” Despite his age, he continues to offer a dependable return when fit and starting. Last season, he finished with 14 goals, and with penalties in his locker, he could be set to surpass that this year.
Psstt… by the way, did you know that you can see your players’ current expected points, updated daily, here
Conclusion: Stick or Twist?
Chris Wood might not be the most exciting option in FPL, but for managers seeking reliability and budget-friendly forwards, he remains a solid pick. His ability to score from limited opportunities and his favourable upcoming fixtures make him a valuable asset. For now, Wood seems like a calculated gamble worth taking—but keep an eye on his shot involvement as Forest’s season unfolds.
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