The penultimate week is here! Well done if you’ve stuck with it all this time – if you’re still keeping on top of your team at this stage you’ve probably got something on the line these last couple of weeks. And what a treat FPL has served us up this year – a double in the penultimate gameweek 37. 

The obvious thing to say in this transfer watchlist would be to buy double gameweek players but it’s no good me listing 5 or 6 players that everyone has. Don’t get me wrong, there’s obvious merit in these players for the pure fact you have twice as much scoring opportunity with them however, we all know that single fixture players can, and will, outscore the doublers. My advice then, is to play smart;

• If you are top of your mini-league and/or completely satisfied with your overall rank, this is the time to go template team. Buy and keep the players that are highly owned and highly brought in this week. 
• If, on the other hand, you are chasing someone above you in your league or you really want a couple of green arrows in the last 2 weeks then you’ve got to go differential – what’s the point in having the same players as the people you are trying to catch up with?! How differential and which ones is where the skill (and a helpful dose of luck) come in.

So, keeping that advice in mind, here are my transfer targets for this week. As always, I’ll explain the logic and reasoning behind them and also discuss the differential or safer alternatives.

The watchlist:

Joško Gvardiol

Ok, I know he’s a £100m player but he’s also a young defender in his first ever season in the Premier League but wow! He’s been exceptional the last few weeks. Pep roulette is always the problem with Man City but Gvardiol appears to have got himself fairly secure on that teamsheet. A double this week for a defender who is taking up some of the most advanced positions on the pitch that are imaginable. Pep loves control in his tactics but Gvardiol is bringing the unexpected. Fair play to anyone who got him in a few weeks ago but it’s not too late, especially with a double. The risk of rotation doesn’t go away but with the title still on the line, I think Pep will keep fielding the strongest side he can and Gvardiol, on current form, is undoubtedly part of that. At 12% ownership he offers the rare combination of fairly low ownership while also being an obvious pick.

Jarrad Branthwaite

A single gameweek player in a team that has now secured survival (assuming no additional points deductions!) and so appear to have little to play for. But this is what differentials are about – the ones that slightly defy the logic of the masses but still have potential to do great things for your FPL score. An assist last week to add to his 3 goals this season doesn’t light up the world but a home fixture against bottom of the league Sheffield United having already secured 11 cleansheets is worth a look. Just 10% ownership means he could give you the edge when others are busy looking elsewhere.

Phil Foden

There’s a reason I never include Haaland on my list – I assume everyone has him (or has made a strategic decision not to) and he’s such an obvious candidate to have it can literally go unspoken. And so I come to Phil Foden, potentially also so obvious I shouldn’t be writing about him. However, he is 40% owned which isn’t so high that all elite managers have him and he has direct competition for his place (in Pep’s and your team), primarily from De Bruyne. The case for Foden is strong; he’s £8.4m, compared to KDB who is £10.5m, which makes him very affordable for the amount of upside he brings, his form this season has been brilliant with 204 FPL points to date and his next 3 fixtures are both important to Manchester City and have a high potential for lots of goals.

The case against Foden (or more precisely, for KDB) is the ever present risk of rotation by Pep. Also if you had to predict which of Dr Bruyne or Foden scored the most points in the final 3 games, forgetting everything else such as FPL price and whether you have them or not in your team, I think you’d be hard pressed to pick one over the other. With 40% ownership of Foden and 18% of KDB it all comes down to strategy and your funds available.

There’s no data I can point to but I just have a feeling KDB will bring his A-game to try to get City over the line in this closest of title races. Winning goals, crucial assists, dominating midfield performances…it’s what he does. Full disclosure, I’m a Foden owner.

Noni Madueke

A double against Nottingham Forest and Brighton (both away) makes Chelsea players a crucial part of any FPL manager’s team this week. Quiet by his standards lately, Palmer is the top choice; his consistency this season has been exceptional and I dread to think what the FPL gods will price him at next year – get him while you can still bag such a bargain. 50% of all players own him so if you’re looking for a more exciting pick to help make up ground then Noni Madueke has appeared to both secured his place on the right wing and started getting some noteworthy FPL returns. 

Nicolas Jackson has had a good couple of weeks, scoring 3 goals in his last 2 games. He’s nailed on and gets on the end of a lot of chances, I just struggle to be willing to put my neck out and recommend him. His 13 goals this season is an average return but his XG is 16.5 so has underperformed it by some margin. That’s the story with him, similar to Nunez at Liverpool, he’ll get chances but it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll take them. He could seriously haul but by equal measure annoyingly blank.

Kai Havertz

Another single gameweek player but Arsenal assets should not be ignored. They play a Manchester United side in dire form while they go into it full of confidence. An injury crisis in defence for United (even more so than was already the case) has meant a team that can’t defend at the best of times is now putting a Casemiro, who many are saying is in rapid decline, at centre back. Everything says a bad day for United considering the amount of chances they give away. I pick Havertz on value as well as the fact he’s classed as a midfielder who is being played upfront however Saka is the other choice here. Much higher owned so offers less of a differential but has the added advantage of being on penalties. 

Michael Olise

Crystal Palace have been in scintillating form and they visit a Wolves side on the other end of the spectrum. Olise was electric against Man United but is perhaps flying under the radar for FPL simply because Crystal Palace have no more doubles and if you had have targeted their players it would have been for their double in 34. But his form shouldn’t be ignored and his ownership is less than 2% so offers fantastic differential power. An end of season gamble to bring in at this point especially with a tricky fixture against Villa on the final day but his points per minute played this season is up with the absolute best.

Richarlison

Spurs have been awful…their form has dropped off a cliff at a time when so many FPL managers starting loading up on their players because of having 2 double gameweeks. They conceded so many goals, there’s a clear issue but they’ve still stuck to Ange-ball and relentlessly attacked in every game. This could mean their attacking assets still return in the remaining fixtures. A double this week, firstly a home game against Burnley should give them a chance to bounce back and Richarlison playing as a striker despite being classed as a midfielder by FPL means his potential returns are good. Son would be the obvious choice but he’s expensive to hold onto when so many other players offer better value. Richarlison on the other hand could be worth holding or buying given his cheaper price. The second fixture in the double is Man City…but again you’re not worried about how many Spurs concede if Richarlison can grab a goal or assist. Add in that their final game of the season is at relegated Sheffield United, over the 3 fixtures there could be some worthwhile returns here.

Conclusion

Another double this week but whether you’re loaded up on doublers or not, there’s plenty of value and points on offer. Your goals will dictate how risky your transfers should be this week with heavily owned, obvious choices being the ones to go for if you’re consolidating your position but if you want to go for it then a differential or two could pay off big time. Just remember that differentials are just that because the majority have decided they’re less likely to return points and so, as ever with risky moves, there is some real downside in play.

Most of us have Palmer, Foden and Saka but if you’re flush with cash I’d suggest KDB is a great differential – many will have been put off by his cost but his quality can’t be underestimated. There’s plenty of differentials like Madueke and Olise who I like as ways to get a green arrow this week but make sure you’ve got enough of a solid base of the double gameweek players and the heavily owned picks before going too “off-piste”.

There’s a lot of marginal calls between these FPL picks but they can make a big difference to how your season ends. My top pick is Isak but I do fear for his minutes. If you’re looking for a differential then Bruno Fernandes edges Havertz for me just because of the extra game in 37.

Who will you go for? Let me know on Instagram! Instagram