It’s fair to say that double gameweek 34 was eventful and from an FPL point of view, very high scoring; some of the highest scores ever! At the time of writing, we still have the Man City Brighton game to play but nonetheless, the gameweek has marked a turning point for many a manager’s season whether because of failure to hit the heights of others or a great return propelling you up the standings. It’s also a turning point for strategy for a number of reasons; Liverpool and Arsenal have no more double gameweeks while Chelsea and Spurs have two and Manchester City, Manchester United, Brighton and Newcaslte have one. We’re also running low on weeks left to use any remaining chips.
This week’s transfer tips are going to be discussed slightly differently than usual due to the array of decisions that each manager could be facing; the game just isn’t as simple in these final few weeks – we all have such different teams and chip strategies. I’m going to discuss by team the key players to target (or avoid!) and hopefully help with decisions of whether to keep or sell existing players in your team.
Ben White
It’s fair to say that the Gunners had a bad couple of weeks; knocked out of the Champions League by Bayern Munich after a league defeat to Aston Villa handed Man City the edge in the title race. To be fair, they’ve bounced back well with two wins on the bounce, 7 goals and 2 clean sheets putting them 4 points clear on Man City having played 2 more games – the title race is still delicately poised.
Many FPL managers will have loaded up on Arsenal for the double in 34 and a popular pick was Saka. He’s been a top performer this season with 202 points so far, 14 goals and 11 assists but concern is growing with just 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 7 games. I still think there’s value in holding him (or your other Arsenal attackers if you have one) because the fixtures are better than they look – next up is a trip to local rivals Spurs who play such open football I feel Arsenal could really capitalise. They then host Bournemouth, head to Old Trafford to play a Manchester United that seem to forget to defend at any given moment and then end the season hosting Everton (who’ll likely be safe from relegation and so on their holidays). My main concern is Saka has played so many minutes and not been rotated enough this season that his potency is dropping off due to fatigue so the £9.0 might be better spent elsewhere.
Personally, I think the real value is still in Arsenal’s defence. Ben White is my pick of the bunch but as I’ve said before, either Saliba or Gabriel are almost equally great picks. Arsenal keep picking up clean sheets and I’m expecting more before the season is out. Combined with the attacking threat they all have, it’s a no brainer to keep at least one.
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Similar to Arsenal, they’ve had a bad few weeks…arguably worse! It’s weird to say that the team is second place, just 3 points off the leaders are out of the title race but that’s what many pundits are saying. I’m tempted to agree, not just because if Man City win both their games in hand then they’ll be 5 points ahead (they haven’t won those games despite many feeling like it’s a foregone conclusion), but because of Liverpool’s form. Results have been littered with “what could have been” – it started with a draw to Man United on 7th April where Liverpool’s XG and shot count should have meant a comfortable win, then they were knocked out of Europe by Atalanta over 2 legs either side of a 1-0 loss to Crystal Palace. The final nail in the coffin was the loss to Everton last week. The running theme has been great underlying stats in terms of XG but the results show they’ve failed to be clinical enough to secure the necessary wins – the likes of Darwin Nunez and co have been wasteful of chances.
This brings me onto Salah – the talisman has not justified his hefty £13.6m price tag in terms of FPL points. His underlying stats continue to be good but it’s hard to justify tying up those sorts of funds in a player who just isn’t returning. Similar to Saka, it’s a tough one, especially as I’m a fan of this FPL legend, but it could be time to sell. Perhaps give him one more chance away to West Ham this week – an inconsistent side that has been prone to shipping a lot of goals – but if you’re wildcarding then the money can be put to better use.
Trent’s return to the Liverpool starting line-up was welcome (he’s been out injured since gameweek 25) and he immediately rewarded those who gambled on his return to fitness with a sublime free-kick against Fulham. The Everton game was another story. A lot to spend on a defender but I expect good minutes from him as he’s crucial to Liverpool’s chances of forcing themselves back into the title race and he’s also fighting to be picked for England’s Euro squad in the summer so has added motivation.
Phil Foden
A fourth successive title is in sight along with a double gameweek to eye for FPL managers. They’ve been knocked out of Europe (a running theme for the Premier League title contenders it seems!) but this provides a new conundrum for us. Rotation was the issue due to who would be played in Europe and who would get starts in the league but now rotation is the issue because they have almost a full compliment of players and less games to share between them. Injuries seem to have fallen away with Haaland the only flagged player in the squad as it stands (more on that later).
Unfortunately it’s now Pep roulette and we’re all invited to play – the fixtures and form is all too tempting not to get involved. My preferred option is Foden, he’s seemingly favoured by Pep for the key matches (hence his Champions League selection against Real Madrid) and he’s so versatile across the front line that he’s a good bet for minutes. Concerns are that competition is hotting up; De Bruyne is the sort of player made for title run-ins and has come back to fitness at the perfect time to help the club secure another title; Grealish seems to be back in favour and hitting some form and Doku has been getting plenty of gametime this season. I lean towards Foden as the pick of the bunch but De Bruyne is a close second only because his price is more off-putting.
There’s clean sheets in Man City’s future but could I tell you which defenders will be on the pitch to benefit – no. If I had to rank them in terms of most expected minutes, I’d put Ruben Dias as first choice followed by Gvardiol then Akanji a close third.
Now to Haaland – he is orange flagged and confirmed not playing the Brighton game (I’ve written this before the game so don’t shoot me if he miraculously plays). For those who have him (the vast majority of managers), just hold him. Let’s see nearer the gameweek deadline what the latest is because if fit he’ll likely start the next game and then go on to play most if not all the remaining fixtures if he’s not ruled out for longer.
Alexander Isak
A double gameweek in 37 and favourable fixtures make Newcaslte a great team to target. Isak and Gordon are my top picks and have been in great form, with the exception on the Crystal Palace game. Isak’s goals per game ratio is incredible and the main concern is him staying fit. Things look good right now and I’d expect plenty more goals from him and his minutes should remain good however the return of Callum Wilson sparks some concern. Wilson will surely be eased back in so expect Isak to keep his starting place but it’s one to watch.
Gordon continues to be a great bargain midfielder and his attacking returns have been very consistent. His connection with Isak appears to be a good one with them linking up well, along with Barnes (who could be a good differential for those trying to make up ground in their mini-league).
In defence Fabian Schär has become a popular pick. Newcastle’s defence isn’t the powerhouse it was last season, key injuries have taken their toll, but Schär provides good value as well as some decent attacking upside with almost guaranteed minutes on the pitch.
Cole Palmer
Two double gameweeks make Chelsea appear like a team to target in these final weeks. I’d move with caution though given their inconsistency. A 4-3 comeback win against Man United, followed by a score draw against Sheffield United said a lot about this team but then they added a thumping 6-0 against Everton and then a 5-0 loss to Arsenal. That’s the formbook – it pretty much says it all.
Palmer is a no brainer – if you don’t have him already, what have you been doing?! The fixtures ahead are a mixture so expect more of the same from Chelsea and so if Palmer can shake off his illness that kept him out of the Arsenal game, then I’m sure he’ll keep returning given the amount of chances he’ll have.
Beyond Palmer – I’d struggle to pin my hat on anyone. Could Nicolas Jackson start putting away all the chances he’s seemingly on the end of but squandering? Yes, but be prepared to be frustrated in the more likely scenario that he doesn’t. He’s basically Chelsea’s Darwin Nunez – gets on the end of a lot so capable of scoring a lot of goals but rarely does. Defensively Chelsea are unreliable so you’re looking for attacking returns but with Gusto and Chilwell both yellow flagged, it’s hard to find a worthwhile pick. If Gusto shakes off his knee injury then his attacking upside make him a solid option.
Image Source: Sky Sports
And the rest
Spurs
2 doubles ahead but their next 5 games include Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City. On paper it doesn’t look great but Spurs play a style of football which means they’ll go for it against any opposition. This could really benefit their attackers. Son Heung-min is the obvious pick, he’s their captain and leader and likely to play as the number 9 with Richarlison still out, adding to his attacking potential. I also like Brennan Johnson as a differential and bargain option.
Manchester United
They can score but can’t defend for toffee. Bruno Fernandes has been in great form and never seems to miss a game, he’s on penalties too. I think he’s close to a must-have for the rest of the season – his form has almost slipped under the radar given all the rumours about Ten Haag’s position and the weird style of football the team seems to be playing. Fernandes has scored 50 points in his last 4 premier league games with 5 goals and 1 assist along the way.
Garnacho is another option and offers value with fairly secure minutes too but Bruno appears the more in form player of the two. Steer well clear of the Man United defence, they might now go on to get some clean sheets but I just wouldn’t trust them – they just don’t seem to know how to shut up shop.
Crystal Palace
Eze was a popular pick for the double and repaid many with a goal and an assist but it was his teammate Jean-Philippe Mateta who got the big score. Fixtures ahead look ok and I wouldn’t be against holding either of these two, or even Olise who also returned a healthy amount of points.
Conclusion
A lot to consider this week given the big double gameweek has passed us by with some really high scores. Some teams will need serious reconstruction while others will feel in good shape. Whichever yours is, it feels like the tide has turned away from the obvious picks at Liverpool (and to a lesser extent Arsenal) given the form of their key players and the upcoming fixture list.
It’s probably time to engage in some Pep roulette and some previously ignored players like Bruno Fernandes are back on the radar. Given how crucial these last few weeks of the season will be to our final scores, the decisions now are more important to get right in the short term and maybe a few punts could be the difference!
